A disorderly break-up of the EuroZone could drive Brent Crude Oil prices to as low as 60 bbl in the resulting sharp European recession and negative Global economic consequences, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) said Friday.
If policy makers were unable to stem the contagion following Greece's exit from the euro, it could potentially lead to a chain reaction where other countries have few options but to opt out of the currency union as well, the bank said in a research note.
In the event of the disorderly broad EuroZone break-up, oil demand in developed European economies could drop by 2-M BPD if the region's economy shrinks by 10%, the bank said.
This could create a large demand gap in Global Crude Oil balances resulting in Oil prices falling sharply, it added.
But if Greece is the only country to leave the EuroZone, Brent could fall to 80 bbl, while the benchmark could drop to 100 bbl if the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro is explored but does not materialize, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
Finally, if Greece is able to renegotiate its bailout package successfully and stays in the Euro, Brent Crude Oil prices could rebound to 120 bbl, the bank adds.
Thursday, the bank said it sees Brent Crude Oil averaging 118 bbl this year and 120 bbl in Y 2013, although another round of monetary easing in Europe could push prices as high as 140 bbl over the next 12 months.
At 1006 GMT ICE July Brent was trading down 0.54, or 0.5%, at 106.95 bbl.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.