Euro puts in bullish outside day; fresh lower top sought by 1.3200. Dollar/Yen trades heavy but still well supported below 98.00. Cable declines extend to 50-Day SMA ahead of minor bounce. Dollar/Swiss pullbacks to 1.1500 area viewed as buy opportunities. Dollar/Cad remains choppy but overall picture constructive. Australian Dollar well capped on rallies above 0.7100. New Zealand Dollar consolidates ahead of next drop.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - A bullish outside day on Wednesday delays the current round of pullbacks with an interim low now in place at 1.2885. Look for some upside over the coming sessions back towards the 1.3200 area before considering the prospects for a fresh lower top ahead of the next downside extension back below 1.2885 and towards the 1.2500 area. The 1.3200 area is seen as an ideal sell level with a minor fib retrace and potential negative cross of the 20-Day SMA below the 100-Day SMA converging by the figure. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3200

R3

4/17 high

1.3125

R2

4/16 low

1.3075

R1

4/20 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2885

S1

4/22 low

1.2835

S2

3/16 low

1.2800

S3

Figure

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Any setbacks are seen limited with the overall structure still favoring additional upside back towards the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00 over the coming days. There is some decent internal range support in the 98.00 area, while the 50-Day SMA at 97.50 is seen supporting any additional declines. Back above 98.90 is however required to accelerate gains and signal a resumption of the up-move. Only a close below 97.50 concerns. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

99.75

R3

4/17 high

99.45

R2

4/20 high

98.90

R1

4/21 high

Level

Support

Details

97.50

S1

50-Day SMA

97.20

S2

3/31 low

96.90

S3

3/24 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Has been sold heavily since topping out just over 1.5000 last week with the declines accelerating through the 100-Day SMA to the 50-Day SMA by 1.4400 thus far ahead of the latest minor bounce. Deeper setbacks are seen ahead with a break below 1.4400 to expose 1.4110 further down. However, we do not rule out the possibility for some strength into Thursday with the markets still quite choppy. Nevertheless, any rallies should be capped ahead of 1.4820. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4755

R3

4/17 low

1.4710

R2

4/21 high

1.4600

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

1.4400

S1

50-Day SMA

1.4275

S2

4/1 low

1.4110

S3

3/30 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - The break back below 1.1635 on Wednesday opens the door for some more corrective action over the coming session, potentially back towards the 1.1500 from where a fresh higher low is sought out ahead of the next upside extension back above 1.1740. Ultimately, only a close below the 200-Day SMA way down by 1.1330 would be required to shift the structure. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1900

R3

Figure

1.1835

R2

3/18 high

1.1740

R1

4/20 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1600

S1

4/22 low

1.1550

S2

50-Day SMA

1.1500

S3

Psychological

USD/CAD

USD/CAD -The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by psychological support at 1.2000. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.1980 (16Apr low) ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar over the coming weeks. Any weakness should now be well supported ahead of 1.2180 with next key topside resistance coming in at 1.2505. Bearish inside day price action on the daily however does warn of some weakness into Thursday and we continue to prefer to stay on the sidelines. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2615

R3

4/2 high

1.2575

R2

4/1 low

1.2505

R1

4/9 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2300

S1

4/13 high

1.2245

S2

4/14 high

1.2190

S3

4/15 high

AUD/USD

AUD/USD - Sharp pullbacks on Monday have shifted the outlook with the break back below 0.7035 ending prospects for a fresh higher low and opening the door for a potential resumption of the broader downtrend. Next key support comes in by 0.6770 and we look for a test of this level over the coming sessions. Only back above 0.7255 will take the pressure off of the downside, and as such, rallies ahead of 0.7255 should be used us sell opportunities. Wednesday's inside day reaffirms bearish outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7330

R3

4/13 high

0.7255

R2

4/20 high

0.7140

R1

4/16 low

Level

Support

Details

0.7005

S1

4/22 low

0.6955

S2

4/20 low

0.6905

S3

3/25 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD -
An inside day on Wednesday leaves the market consolidating the latest round of setbacks off of the early April 0.5985 highs. We look for this consolidation to be broken to the downside over the coming sessions with a move back below 0.5485 to accelerate and expose a deeper drop towards 0.5300-0.5400 area. Only back above 0.5710 negates short-term bearish outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5755

R3

4/17 high

0.5710

R2

4/20 high

0.5655

R1

4/21 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5505

S1

4/21 low

0.5485

S2

4/20 low

0.5415

S3

50-Day SMA

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

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