by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Market mover today:

- BoE mpc minutes

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee sets Interest rates. The meeting minutes released today will provide key information of the Bank’s inflation outlook and ultimately where Interest Rates could be heading. Watch out for this one

EUR/USD Probability Study:

The 60 minute trend is indicated with the green trendlines you can see in the above chart. The 60minute trend also depicts the direction of highest probability for the European trading session. Therefore, due to the fact that the 60minute trend is bearish, the Probability is short

The Probability Study technique is roughly based on the Dow theory’s rules that the market moves in three trends: A primary trend, secondary trend and minor trend

In this case, the “minor trend” is known as the “60 minute trend”. Should the 60 minute trend be violated to the upside, the direction of highest probability will be bullish

Support levels:

Secondary Trend support resides at 1.4000

Primary Trend support resides at 1.3900

Trading Condition: yes

- The 1 hour stochastic is bearish. this signals that market rhythm is trending in the direction of highest probability in a sustainable fashion. If the 1hr stochastic crosses bullish, a no trade zone will be at hand. (I only execute my trading system once I have a fully fledged trading condition, otherwise I sit on my hands)

GBP/USD Probability Study:

On the above chart you can see that the 60 minute trend is bullish, therefore the direction of highest probability is bullish for this particular European trading session

Support levels:

60 Minute Trend support resides at 1.6430

Secondary Trend support resides @ 1.6240

Primary Trend support resides at 1.6330

Trading Condition: no

- The 1 hour stochastic is bearish. Once the 1 hr stochastic crosses bullish it will signal that market rhythm is trending north in a sustanable fashion

GBP Warning!

watch out for the MPC minutes. This could have a “probability changing effect”

Happy pipping!

Johan Kriek