Eurozone Debt Worries Exacerbated by Election Results

By Roger Baettig | May 07 2012 3:41 AM

While the market has not recovered from the disappointing US job data, concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone exacerbated the sentiment as the Socialist party won the French election while exit poll of the Greek election suggested that supports for both pro- and anti-bailout parties are similar. As the new governments of both European countries are likely to opt for less austerity, the outlook to resolve the sovereign debt problems in the region has turned more difficult.

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Socialist Francois Hollande won the French election with 52% vote, making him the first socialist candidate to be elected since 1981. Hollande has criticized the German-led austerity program and stated that Austerity is not inevitability. Moreover, he suggested that the ECB should act to help resolve the problems more actively. He also supports the joint issuance of Eurobonds. Meanwhile, the Greek election is also in focus and the situation is more worrisome. Exit polls indicated that the New Democracy and the Socialist Pasok party, the 2 pro-bailout parties, will have at most a 1 seat majority while the Coalition of the Radical Left, an anti-bailout party, would claim second place. The 2 pro-bailout parties stated that they would seek to help Greece remain in the Eurozone and to tweak the bailout policies in order to have growth and bring relief to Greek society while the Coalition of the radical Left indicated that it will form a government with left-leaning parties.

Only second-tier data will be released today. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index probabl slipped to -15.3 in May from-14.7 a month ago while Germany's factory orders might have gained +0.5% m/m in March after a rise of +0.3% in the prior month.

Commitments of Traders

Speculators were bullish over the energy complex in the week ended May 1. Net length for crude oil futures climbed +14 257 contracts to 226 643. Net length for heating oil added +6 972 contracts to 26 860 while that for gasoline rose +3 570 contracts to 86 747. Net short for natural gas futures fell -8 493 contracts to 121 801.

Speculators were mixed towards precious metals. Net length for gold futures added +5 399 contracts to 140 393 while that for silver dropped -887 contracts to 15 584 contracts. For PGMs, net length for platinum increased +1 678 contracts to 16 601 while that for palladium climbed +1 033 contracts to 6 778.