Forex Technical Update

Previous: EUR/USD Trading Down Near a Rising Trendline (8/15)

EUR/USD 1H Chart 8/15/2012 7:10AM EDT


The EUR/USD is finding support at a rising consolidation trendline that connects the low of 1.2042 low of 7/24 with the 1.2133 low of 8/2. The 1H chart shows a market losing momentum in the near-term as well, with the price-RSI reading showing a bullish divergence. The overall momentum has been range-bound.

If the price action whips back above the 1.2330 pivot as well as the 200-hour SMA, and the RSI pushes back above 60, we would be clearly back into the consolidation mode, with focus turned back to the upside, where a declining trendline is seen in the 4H chart. A break above 1.24 can probably clear the trendline, though a break above the 1.2442 pivot should be needed to suggest a breakout and extension of the corrective rally that started at the end of July.

If the rising trendline breaks during the 8/16 US session, we first should see if the 1.2240 pivot will hold. A break below that then suggests bearish direction in the short-term with the 1.2042 low in sight.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 8/15/2012 7:10AM EDT


Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes - provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.

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