EURUSD: Risk for a recapture of its YTD/July'09 lows at 1.3851/31 is now seen having wiped out more than half of its two-day recovery following its failure at the 1.4025 level and its subsequent price collapse on Wednesday. Though currently challenging the 1.3851/31 levels, a decisive break and hold below there is required to resume its short term declines initiated from the 1.5143 level, its 2009 high towards the 1.3747/33 levels, its Jun 16'09 low/.50 retracement (1.2328-1.5143 rally). A firm invalidation of these levels will call for further downside weakness towards its .61 Fib retracement/May 18'09 low at 1.3422/09 where a cap may be seen thereby triggering a recovery higher. Its daily RSI has turned lower supporting this view. On the other hand, to reverse its current downside vulnerability, EUR will have to break back above the 1.4025/28 levels thereby creating scope for further upside gains towards the 1.4194 level, its Jan 25'10 high. Further out, stronger resistance lies at the 1.4216/62 levels, its Dec 22'09/Jan 08'10 lows.
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