Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- The Non-Farm Payroll was more or less USD-negative, coming in at 36K, lower than the expected 133K, and much lower than the 103K last month.
- As I mentioned in yesterday's Chartist Corner, the USD did not need real great numbers to gain at these low levels. (USD index hit 77 before rebounding). However this is the type of reading that could be really bad for the USD. The fact that it is withstanding this poor data could be a suggestion of strength in the upcoming weeks.
- Does this mean our scenario to 1.3250 is definite? Nothing is, and we might get a meaningful rally soon as we complete a bearish impulse wave (There was 3 swings down, with 2 corrective waves, first being an ascending triangle, the second being a symmetric triangle). Now we are in our 3rd down swing, or wave 5, and therefore, we can expect a rally more significant than the triangles to follow.
- We still need to break below 1.3540 for the 1.34 and 1.3250 targets. A possible scenario is that the support near 1.3540 will help trigger a correction back towards 1.37, after which, we will continue to the lower targets.
- The bearish outlook appears to be materializing. Just look out for a pullback, which could be a bull trap before a more significant decline.
Will the EUR/USD reach 1.3250? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist