Forex Technical Update

Previous: EUR/USD is Testing a Rising Trendline as it Cracks 1.3150 (2/13)




EUR/USD continues to maintain the short-term bearish momentum established from the slide from the 2012 highs near 1.3320. The 1H RSI has been held below 60, tagging 30, as price has made important lower highs and lower lows. Furthermore, breaking below 1.3150 also break below a rising trendline seen in the 4H chart. After a pullback in the 2/15 Asian-European session, the EUR/USD stalled at the previous support and respected it as resistance, holding below the 200 hour simple moving average. The US session then brought the pair down below the previous session low closing in on a key support at 1.30.


The 4H chart shows the breakout and confirmation more clearly, with heavy bearish price action. The RSI is no longer holding above 40 in this time-frame. Observe previous pivots near 1.3025. 1.30 is also a psychological support and is coincident with the 200 SMA in this 4H chart. Below that, with a challenge at 50% retracement (1.2970), we open up 61.8% retracement at 1.2890, down to a pivot at 1.2870 (seen 12/29 as support, and 1/13 as resistance, then last seen on 1/23 as support).

At this point, only a break above 1.32 should threaten the bearish scenario in the short to medium term.

This analysis is of a snapshot of the market and the anticipation based on the current conditions. Things may change, and adjustments are often needed especially when preparing for a trade. To follow up and explore trading plans and risk management techniques as well as fundamental bias and event risks, don't miss IBTrade's daily Market Intelligence Briefings live at 8:00AM EST throughout the week. To gain free access to these sessions, register at here at IBTrade. You will receive and email with the link and password before each session once you have registered.

Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator for IBTrade; and main contributor for FXTimes - provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.


Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.