EURUSD: With a fourth week of trade below the 1.4446/79 levels seen and several unsuccessful attempts at breaking those levels failing, threats continue to point lower while EUR holds below the mentioned resistance levels. As can be seen on the chart, the pair is now consolidating its sell off triggered from the 1.5143 level, its 2009 high with a defined range between the 1.4446/79 levels and the 1.4216 level. EUR looks to crack the bottom of that range and eventually resume its short term declines started at the 1.5143 level. In such a case, the 1.4176 level, its Sept 01'09 low will be targeted ahead of the 1.4044 level, its Aug 17'09 and subsequently its big psycho level at 1.4000. However, the risk to this analysis will be a break and close above the 1.4446/79 levels which should clear the way for a run at the 1.4625 level, its Nov 03'09 low followed by its Dec 11'09 high. We expect the 1.4625 level to limit upside gains if seen thereby turning the pair back down again. On the whole, with its larger trend (MT) now on hold and key supports violated, risk of further downside weakness remains on the cards

EURUSD