Forex Technical Update

Prev: EUR/USD Opens up 1.4940 and 1.6020 with Breakouts of Long-Term Patterns (7/26)

EUR/USD 7/27/2011 1H chart
Bullish Stance:

- The EUR/USD rally has been impressive. Non-overlapping rallies suggest we are in a major attempt.
- The bullish outlook has a target to 1.4940, with 1.4577 and 1.4696 as intermediate pivots.
- A break back above the 1.4495 suggests weak bears and bullish continuation.
- So far there is no overlap with previous consolidation zone, but the market appears to be doing so entering the US session.
Bearish Signs Bel0w 1.4450:
- RSI falling below 40 suggests lost of bullish momentum. Price action breaking projected rising trendline. 1.4450 was also a major pivot and the market's inability to stay above in the US session also reflect weak bulls in the short-term.
- In the near-term 1.44 is an important support.
- Critical Support is at 1.4280, 50% retracement.
- Looking at the 4H chart, the 1.4280-1.43 level represents a 200SMA, and a resistance pivot.
- A break below 1.4280 and the rising trendline and the 200SMA would reflect a major shift back towards the bearish mode. If that occurs, we can look back towards 1.3850.
EUR/USD 7/27/2011 4H chart

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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist