EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD made a disappointing breakout above the triangle, unable to stay above 1.4500 and now back inside the triangle. This fact keeps price in consolidation phase with unclear direction and momentum. A broader look on bigger time frame may refresh our mind while short term bias remains tricky. As you can see on my daily chart below price is still in a major bullish outlook since the bullish run from 1.1875, moving inside the bullish channel but corrected lower from 1.4939. I expected a valid breakout from the triangle yesterday to end the downside correction and to have clearer direction but that didn’t happen. From this point of view, the bearish correction from 1.4939 is not over yet and another downside attempt testing the lower line of the bullish channel is still potential. This is not a good market especially for intraday traders as many false breakout/down and short lived momentum occur. Selling on overbought or buying on oversold area must be tempting for aggressive intraday traders. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.4450. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.4500/50 area, which could open the door for another breakout scenario testing June’s high at 1.4695. On the downside, immediate support area remains around 1.4400 – 1.4350 followed by the lower line of the triangle.

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