EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD had a significant bearish pullback yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 1.3800 key resistance area, bottomed at 1.3609 and closed at 1.3625. Now the bullish continuation outlook is paused with a bearish technical bias in nearest term especially if price makes another strong break below 1.3600 – 1.3570 support area testing 1.3500 as the false breakout bearish scenario would have further validation. A break below 1.3500 would lead us to a new bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.3680. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term re-testing 1.3800 and would give the bullish continuation scenario another chance. Fundamental focus today will be on US NFP which expected to be a good one, forecast around 138K with previous number around 103K. A better than expected actual result would give further pressure to the Euro while a worse than expected result could lead the Euro higher. The geopolitics factor in Egypt also could play important role. After Mubarak refused to step down, the opposition parties and protesters pledge to have a bigger demonstration today to force the Egyptian President to resign. There are no signs that the political condition is getting better so far and this could create a risk aversion sentiment in the market and give strength to the US Dollar.

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