EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2983 and hit 1.2969 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term, testing 1.2920 and the trend line support. From another technical perspective as you can see on my daily chart below, the trend line support is also the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. A clear break below the neckline would confirm the bearish continuation scenario at least testing 1.2700 – 1.2600 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3040. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term. Note that as long as the trend line support/neckline hold, we are still in consolidation phase where bearish continuation scenario is not validated yet. Fundamental focus on the US NFP number today, which is expected to be good, forecast around 159K with previous number only 39K. A better than expected US NFP number could send the Euro lower below the neckline and confirm the bearish continuation scenario while a worse than expected number could prevent further bearish pressure and keep price in range area but I think overall the pressure remains to the downside.

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