EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD had a huge bearish pullback yesterday after break below the range area, bottomed at 1.4509 and closed at 1.4557. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4450 support area which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939, which also located around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. Note that as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact, but a break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook testing 1.4150 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Immediate resistance at 1.4730. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction.

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