EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 1.4147 but closed a little bit lower at 1.4079. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but from a longer term outlook price is in a critical phase, testing the lower line of the major bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. From this point of view, there are two potential scenarios. Firstly, if the bullish channel holds and price breaks above 1.4280 – 1.4300 area (Tuesday’s high and EMA 200 on h4 chart) the bearish correction phase since the fall from 1.4939 could be over and price might be ready to resume its major bullish scenario since the bullish run from 1.1875. Secondly, if the bearish correction continues and price breaks below the bullish channel, not only further bearish pressure can be expected testing 1.3800 but also could be an early signal of a major bearish reversal scenario. Immediate support is seen around 1.4030. A clear break below that area would change my short term bias back to bearish retesting the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.3980/50 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.4100. A clear break back above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.4150 – 1.4200 as a part of the bullish pullback after touched the lower line of the bullish channel on Tuesday, keep the major bullish outlook intact.

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