Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4445; (P) 1.4500; (R1) 1.4554;
EUR/USD's break of 1.4456 minor resistance suggests that correction from 1.4217 has completed at 1.4578 already, after hitting mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571. intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.4266 support first. break there will indicate that fall from 1.5143 is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next. In case of recovery, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.4578 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.