EUR/USD Daily Outlook

EUR/USD dives further to as low as 1.4171 today and the break of 1.4217 support confirms that whole decline from 1.5143 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should now be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next. On the upside, above 1.4304 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 1.4578 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.