EURUSD: Failure Above The 1.5000 Level Keeps Risk Lower

EURUSD- With three attempts failing to keep EUR above its key resistance at 1.5000, it collapsed sharply lower through the 1.4917 level to close at 1.4820 on Thursday. Immediate risk is seen towards the 1.4844 level where a cap is expected but if that fails we could see the pair facing further downside pressure towards its LT rising trendline currently at 1.4688 where a halt is expected to turn it higher. Further down, the 1.4625 level comes in as the next support and then its Oct 02'09 low at 1.4479. We believe that the 1.4844 level or the 1.4688 level should contain its present downside if seen which is consistent with our longer term outlook. The first sign of deterioration will be a violation of its longer rising trendline and the second will be a loss of its swing low at 1.4625. These are two significant levels which if broken will halt the pair's medium term uptrend and trigger lower level prices. On the other hand, EUR must return back above the 1.5000 level to avert its current price weakness and bring further gains towards the 1.5082 level, its Aug 10'08 high and next its 1.5283 level, its May 04'08 low. On the whole, though facing immediate downside pressure, it still retains its overall MT uptrend bias.

Daily Chart: EURUSD