EURUSD: Immediate Risk Remains Higher

EURUSD - With most of its recovery gains on Monday still maintained, immediate risk remains higher with focus on its Nov 16'09 high at 1.5014. A sustained break and hold above there will set the stage for a run towards its YTD high at 1.5062 with an eventual break of that level creating scope for further upside towards the 1.5082 level, its Aug 10'08 high and next its 1.5283 level, its May 04'08 low. This view remains valid while EUR holdSfirmly above its long rising trendlineand its Nov 20'09 high at 1.4799. Its daily studies have turned higher supporting this view. However, to reverse our bullish view, EUR must take out its LT rising trend and the 1.4799 levels thereby allowing further downside towards the 1.4625 level, its Nov 03'09 low and its Oct 02'09 low at 1.4479. We expect a combination of the first mentioned levels(1.4736 and 1.4625) to provide strong support if tested and turn the pair back up.