EURUSD: Risk Continues To Point Higher

EURUSD - With a reversal off its intra day low at 1.4887 pushing EUR to a marginal close on Tuesday, threats of further upside move towards the 1.5014 level, its Nov 16'09 high and beyond continue to shape up which it was testing at the time of this analysis. While our medium term outlook remains higher, a sustained break and hold above there(1.5014) will set the stage for a run at its YTD high at 1.5062 with an eventual break creating scope for further upside towards the 1.5082 level, its Aug 10'08 high and next its 1.5283 level, its May 04'08 low. This view remains valid while EUR holds firmly above its long term rising trendline and its Nov 20'09 high at 1.4799. Its daily studies have turned higher supporting this view. However, to reverse our bullish view, EUR must take out its LT rising trend and the 1.4799 levels thereby allowing further downside towards the 1.4625 level, its Nov 03'09 low and its Oct 02'09 low at 1.4479. We expect a combination of the first mentioned levels(1.4736 and 1.4625) to provide strong support if tested and turn the pair back up.

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