EURUSD: We continue to see downside risk while the pair trades below its July'09/Feb 01'10 lows at 1.3831/51 or even the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21'10 low/Feb 03'10 high. This suggests that as EURUSD continues to hesitate at the 1.3733/47 levels, its Jun 16'09 low/.50 retracement (1.2328-1.5143 rally), we look for it to trade lower towards the its Feb 08'10 low at 1.3620 followed by its 2010 low at 1.3584. A clean violation of the latter will resume its medium term weakness towards its .61 Fib retracement/May 18'09 low at 1.3422/09 and then its Jun 03'09 low at 1.3211. However, to reverse its immediate downside threats, the pair will have to decisively clear its July'09/Feb 01'10 lows at 1.3831/51 to create scope for further strength towards the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21'10 low/Feb 03'10 high where a cap is expected.

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