The chart shows the movement after the last week€™s low 1.2885. The rise to 1.3300 is spectacular and is at first glance wave 1 of a rise from one higher degree. This scenario will become favored if the euro stays above 1.3044 (61.8 % retracement of the said rise) and rises above 1.3300 later.

However there is also an alternative scenario € the said rise to be wave C of a complex corrective structure and in such a case one should expect a sharp sell-off below 1.2885.

Both scenarios are real possibilities and I can not objectively favor any of them. However my feeling is that the bearish scenario will develop so I try to enter short with close stop loss.

Trading strategy: 09:19 EST; 14:19 GMT

Sell on recovery to 1.3170, stop loss - 1.3240, target - open

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.