The fall of the euro continues to accelerate. It is too sharp and strong but I still favor the idea that it is corrective in nature not impulsive. The determining of the nature of the fall is important because when the current movement (started from 1.5904) is over, there will be a correction and we should have an idea how deep will be this correction. In a case of an impulsive fall the maximum allowance will be 61.8 % correction (probably much smaller) while a correction after an corrective fall should be at least 61.8 % (and probably much deeper).

The chart shows my working count. It suggests that there is a triple corrective combination with currently developing third phase. This idea suggests one more low below 1.5340 before the end of the movement started from 1.5904 and beginning of a deeper correction (at least 61.8 %). With an eye on this I tend to open a long position. Currently I will be flat because there is no clearness where will be the end the third wave b so I still can not make reliable calculation for the end of the expected third wave c. An important resistance is 1.5471 and if we see a rise above it, this will be a signal that the fall started from 1.5904 found a temporary bottom and a correction of this movement has already started.

Trading strategy: 04:38 EST; 08:38 GMT

The long position opened from 1.5421 was closed at 1.5370 with loss 51 pips.

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.