The EUR/USD is fluctuating around our 1st tier downtrend and 4th tier uptrend lines as investors digest the worse than expected U.S. unemployment data. The headline Unemployment Rate breached 10% (10.2%) and the services unemployment change data also came in weaker than anticipated. While we would normally expect a sharp pullback in the EUR/USD and broad-based preference for the Dollar in reaction to the news, the currency pair is instead exerting quite a bit of strength. The S&P futures are also trading up off intra-day lows while the gold tests its highly psychological $1100/oz level. Since the present positive reaction to the news is counter-intuitive we will have to see how the session ends up before making a more accurate fundamental analysis. That being said, we believe volatility could increase as Friday wears on, so investors should remain alert.
EU economic data will start to pick up on Monday after a relatively quiet week. On Monday the Germany will report Industrial Production data followed by ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday. Considering investors are still interpreting the mass of monetary policy decisions and economic data this week from around the globe, next week's movements could give us a better idea of what direction the next trend is headed. Technically speaking, The EUR/USD still faces multiple downtrend lines along with October highs and the highly psychological 1.50 level. As for the downside, the EUR/USD also has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions to go along with 11/05 and 10/27 lows. In other words, the EUR/USD's near-term direction bias is still a toss-up, meaning investors should actively monitor the currency pair's interaction with our technical levels for any telling movement in either direction.
Present Price: 1.4894
Resistances: 1.4895, 1.4909, 1.4926, 1.4947, 1.4966, 1.4983, 1.4994
Supports: 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4840, 1.4822, 1.4804, 1.4781, 1.4769
Psychological: 1.50, 1.45