EURUSD Forecast: Bernanke triggered Dollar rally, but Euro recovered quickly, technical bullish remains intact

 @ibtimes on November 16 2009 8:44 PM

What a surprise we had yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, after violated the bearish channel, actually this pair had a nice bullish momentum before Bernanke dropped the bomb with his pessimistic comment about economy recovery by saying this words: “Today, financial conditions are considerably better than they were then, but significant economic challenges remain. The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak, and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible” Euro fell after that comment, hit  the bottom at 1.4879 as risk aversion came back. I didn’t expected this negative tone but another surprise happened as the Euro recovered quickly, peaked at 1.5015 and closed at 1.4967. I thought that Bernanke’s pessimistic tone will support technical bearish reversal scenario, but it didn’t. I was wrong, but for me nothing is confirmed yet for now. To read Bernanke’s full comment, follow this link below:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091116a.htm

Regardless of mixed reaction in the market on Bernanke’s words, technically, the fact that this pair still able to stay above 1.4950/60 right now should continue the pressure on Dollar re-testing 1.5062 today. However for me, only movement above 1.5062 could be seen as bullish continuation confirmation targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300. Immediate support at 1.4920 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing key support 1.4850/20 area.

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