The EURUSD failed to continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday. As you can see on my h4 chart, although the lower line of the bearish channel still provide a support and price not yet go back inside the bearish channel, the fact that the pair is in a weaker tone is clear. That’s why although not completely a mess (since the lower line of the bearish channel still provide support), I think my yesterday’s technical view maybe not the best way to look at current situation. Fortunately, my system did not produce any buy signal yesterday. I think I will stay out from the market for now.
Although it’s too early for a bearish reversal, I think it’s worth to take a look on bearish reversal warning showed by the rising wedge formation on daily chart below. The rejection to move above 1.4850 could be a starting point to the bearish reversal and potentially violate the lower line of the rising wedge, which could be a confirmation to the bearish reversal scenario in longer term.
The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4440. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.4330 area and could seriously damage the bullish outlook. Initial resistance at 1.4575 followed by 1.4650. Eyes on US NFP today. A worse than expected number could trigger negative sentiment to the global economy recovery and might bring risk aversion back into the market and give some support to the Greenback and could wane the optimism view in the market.