The EURUSD made a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, but overall still in consolidation phase. Beside ECB keep rate at 1%, we have no surprising statement that could trigger significant movement to break the range bound area. However, in general, actually ECB still maintain growing optimism about overall economy recovery progress, said that the rate the current rates remain â€œappropriateâ€ and there are increasingly signs that the global recession is bottoming out. While ECB failed to move the market significantly, investors now focusÂ on the NFP data today. Any surprising number, whether better or worse than expected, could break the range bound area and give us a clearer direction. A better than expected data should continue the EURUSD bullish scenario towards 1.4500 or even 1.4719 as risk appetite should rises while a worse than expected number should lead the Euro lower below 1.4336 and back towards 1.4250 or even 1.4150 area as the demand for Dollar as safe heaven currency may increase.
On technical side, the pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4328 but still closed above 1.4336 key support level. On h4 chart below we can see that the price retreated into the range area after slipped a little bit below lower border of the range area. CCI in oversold area and heading up suggests a very limited bearish correction momentum for now. The bias is neutral in nearest term but medium bullish term should remains intact. The pair is in critical phase where any movement below 1.4336 could be a serious threat to the current bullish medium outlook and could lead us back towards 1.4250 or even 1.4150 area.Â On the upside, a break above 1.4500 should continue bullish continuation towards 1.4719 area.