The EURUSD continued to consolidate in range bound area yesterday, as you can see on h4 chart below. It is clear that the market need significant fundamental catalyst to make a break on either side. Today we will have ECB rate decision which expected to keep rate at 1%. However I think the market will focus more to ECB press conference regarding overall monetary policy and Euro economy outlook. Given the facts that investors may begin toÂ have growing optimism about world economy recovery but no signs of a strong recovery in the Euro, the ECB statement is likely to be â€œflatâ€. We might see volatile market during ECB conference, but unless we have rate cut or hike or any surprise statement, I doubt that EURUSD will have significant movement today.
On technical side, the pair is still in consolidation phase after bullish running. I am expecting a breakout to the upside at least testing 1.4500 area. Clear break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.4179. Key support level remains at 1.4336. As long as the pair stay above that area, the bullish outlook remains intact. However, break below that area should be a potential threat to the bullish outlook.