EUR/USD
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012, Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Monday is a very quiet day for economic news. Watch for a special EU meeting to handle the Greek Bailout

 06:45    EUR        French CPI (MoM)

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD  continues falling against the greenback. Earlier in the day the EU refused to consider the Greek bailout agreement as the terms agreed to amongst the Greek political parties did not satisfy the terms of the bailout. They had made progress, but fell short of the terms set forth. The EU told Greece Finance Minister that they need to meet 100% of the original plan and meet all financial criteria. Merkel also signaled last evening, that a Greece default would not be terrible and could be contained.

The euro fell to $1.3191 from $1.3287 and continues to fall, although an early morning report in the US which showed the U.S. trade balance fell more-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted -48.8B last month from -47.1B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -47.8B.

Economic Data Thursday Feb 9, 2012 ( actual v forecast )                                                                                             

 

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

1.00

 
 
 

-3.00 

 
 

 

KRW

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

 

3.25% 

 

3.25% 

 
 

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

4.5%

 

4.0% 

 

4.1% 

 
 

 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

0.7%

 

0.8% 

 

1.7% 

 
 

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.5% 

 
 

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

1.0%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 
 

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-7.1B

 

-8.4B 

 

-8.9B 

 
 

 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 
 

 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 
 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

358K

 

370K 

 

373K 

 
 

 

EUR

ECB Press Conference 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3515K

 

3525K 

 

3451K 

 
 

 

MXN

Mexican CPI (YoY) 

4.0%

 

4.0% 

 

3.8% 

 
 

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

-0.2%

 
 
 

-0.2% 

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17

Feb 13  10:10  Italy   BOT auction

Feb 13  10:10  Norway  T-bill auction

Feb 13  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Aug 2012 Bubill

Feb 13  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on Feb 20

Feb 14  09:30  Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL

Feb 14  09:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Feb 14  10:10  Greece  3M T-bill auction

Feb 14  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 14  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Feb 15  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 15  10:30  Portugal  Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills

Feb 16  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Feb 16  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16  10:50  France  BTA/OATi auction

Feb 16  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y TIPS

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.2968
1.3062
1.3125
1.3219
1.3282
1.3376
1.3439

Fibonacci
1.3062
1.3122
1.3159
1.3219
1.3279
1.3316
1.3376

Camarilla
1.3144
1.3159
1.3173
1.3219
1.3202
1.3216
1.3231

Woodie's
-
1.3054
1.3109
1.3211
1.3266
1.3368
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3250
1.3203
1.3093
-
-