Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       ECB Monthly Report

The European Central Bank's (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's perspective.

13:30     USD      Building Permits                                             0.68M                   0.67M

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.                    

 13:30    USD       Core PPI (MoM)                                              0.1%                      0.3%     

13:30     USD       PPI (MoM)                                                       0.3%                      -0.1%    

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.                

13:30     USD       Housing Starts                                               0.68M                   0.66M    

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector    

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                   364K                      358K                     

 13:30    USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                        3550K                    3515K

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

14:00     USD      Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC                                                        

15:00     USD      Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index    8.4                         7.3                                                         

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is down trading at 1.3048 on worries from Greece. In general the economic data released today was positive for the eurozone, but fears on the future of Greece continued to depress the euro. It is trading at the bottom of the range at present and continues to decline.

The positive sentiment in France was further fuelled by data showing that France's gross domestic product grew 0.2% in the final quarter of 2011, which exceeded analyst expectations.

GDP in the euro zone overall contracted 0.3% for the fourth quarter, shallower than economists' expectations of a 0.4% slowdown.

In Germany, a report showed that Europe's largest economy shrank less than expected in the final three months of 2011, contracting a seasonally adjusted 0.2%.

German gross domestic product shrank by a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the previous three months, the federal statistics office, Destatis, reported Wednesday. Compared to the final quarter of 2010, Europe's largest economy grew by 2%. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast German GDP to shrink by 0.3% on a quarterly basis and to expand 1.8% compared to the final quarter of 2010. France's statistics agency, Insee, reported GDP saw quarterly growth of 0.2% and expanded 1.7% compared to the final quarter of 2010. Economists had expected French GDP to shrink 0.1% on a quarterly basis

The Italian economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the final three months of 2011, meeting a widely-used definition of recession, official data showed Wednesday. The country's national statistics office, Istat, said preliminary gross domestic product shrank 0.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months. 

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Tuesday lowered the ratings of seven Portuguese financial institutions, including Banco Santander Totta SA, Banco BPI SA, Caixa Geral de Depositos SA, and Banco Comercial Portugues SA. The move follows the downgrade of Portugal's sovereign rating to BB in January and the revision of the country's Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) to 7 from 5. The BICRA is scored on a scale from 1 to 10, with group 10 categorized as the highest risk

U.S. industrial production was flat in January, but the increase in December was much larger than first reported, according to the Federal Reserve.

Last month, industrial production was unchanged, as a 0.7% increase among manufacturers was offset by sharp declines in mining and utilities, data from the U.S. central bank showed Wednesday. 

Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes climbed in February for the fifth straight month to reach the highest level in more than four years, according to a survey released Wednesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 in February from 25 in January, meaning the gauge has more than doubled since September.

News that only a few of the Federal Open Market Committee favored another round of quantitative easing, or QE3, according to minutes of the last meeting released Wednesday. Others on the Fed's interest rate setting body indicated that QE3 could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below the 2% target for a long time, the minutes show. 

Greece will continue to outway economic data until the matter is settled. 

Wednesday Economic Data actual v. forecast

AUD

 

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)

1.3%

 
 
 

-2.7%

 
 

KRW

 

South Korean Trade Balance

-2.03B

 
 
 

-1.96B

 
 

JPY

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

SGD

 

Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY)

4.2%

 

7.0%

 

6.2%

 
 

EUR

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.3%

 
 

EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3%

 

0.6%

 
 

EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY)

2.0%

 

2.0%

 

2.4%

 
 

SEK

 

Swedish GDP (QoQ) 

3.4%

 

2.1%

 

3.0%

 
 

HUF

 

Hungarian GDP (YoY) 

1.4%

 

0.5%

 

1.4%

 
 

CZK

 

Czech GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.7%

 

1.2%

 
 

EUR

 

Austrian GDP (YoY)

1.2%

 
 
 

2.5%

 
 

EUR

 

Netherlands GDP (YoY) 

-0.7%

 

0.3%

 

1.1%

 
 

EUR

 

Italian GDP (QoQ) 

-0.7%

 

-0.6%

 

-0.2%

 
 

GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

2.0%

 

1.8%

 

2.0%

 
 

GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

6.9K

 

3.2K

 

1.9K

 
 

GBP

 

Unemployment Rate

8.4%

 

8.4%

 

8.4%

 
 

EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4%

 

0.1%

 
 

EUR

 

Trade Balance

7.5B

 

4.7B

 

6.1B

 
 

CHF

 

ZEW Expectations

-21.2

 
 
 

-50.1

 
 

MYR

 

Malaysian GDP (YoY) 

5.2%

 

4.5%

 

5.8%

 
 

GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

GBP

 

BoE Gov King Speaks

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

USD

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-1.0%

 
 
 

7.5%

 
 

PLN

 

Polish CPI (YoY)

4.1%

 

4.3%

 

4.6%

 
 

USD

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

19.5

 

14.2

 

13.5

 
 

USD

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

17.9B

 

62.3B

 

61.3B

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17

Feb 16  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Feb 16  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16  10:50  France  BTA/OATi auction

Feb 16  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y TIPS

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.2860
1.2952
1.3007
1.3099
1.3154
1.3246
1.3301

Fibonacci
1.2952
1.3008
1.3043
1.3099
1.3155
1.3190
1.3246

Camarilla
1.3022
1.3035
1.3049
1.3099
1.3075
1.3089
1.3102

Woodie's
-
1.2943
1.2989
1.3090
1.3136
1.3237
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3127
1.3085
1.2979
-
-