Economic Events: (GMT)
09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report
The European Central Bank's (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's perspective.
13:30 USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.67M
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.68M 0.66M
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3550K 3515K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.4 7.3
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is down trading at 1.3048 on worries from Greece. In general the economic data released today was positive for the eurozone, but fears on the future of Greece continued to depress the euro. It is trading at the bottom of the range at present and continues to decline.
The positive sentiment in France was further fuelled by data showing that France's gross domestic product grew 0.2% in the final quarter of 2011, which exceeded analyst expectations.
GDP in the euro zone overall contracted 0.3% for the fourth quarter, shallower than economists' expectations of a 0.4% slowdown.
In Germany, a report showed that Europe's largest economy shrank less than expected in the final three months of 2011, contracting a seasonally adjusted 0.2%.
German gross domestic product shrank by a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the previous three months, the federal statistics office, Destatis, reported Wednesday. Compared to the final quarter of 2010, Europe's largest economy grew by 2%. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast German GDP to shrink by 0.3% on a quarterly basis and to expand 1.8% compared to the final quarter of 2010. France's statistics agency, Insee, reported GDP saw quarterly growth of 0.2% and expanded 1.7% compared to the final quarter of 2010. Economists had expected French GDP to shrink 0.1% on a quarterly basis
The Italian economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the final three months of 2011, meeting a widely-used definition of recession, official data showed Wednesday. The country's national statistics office, Istat, said preliminary gross domestic product shrank 0.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Tuesday lowered the ratings of seven Portuguese financial institutions, including Banco Santander Totta SA, Banco BPI SA, Caixa Geral de Depositos SA, and Banco Comercial Portugues SA. The move follows the downgrade of Portugal's sovereign rating to BB in January and the revision of the country's Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) to 7 from 5. The BICRA is scored on a scale from 1 to 10, with group 10 categorized as the highest risk
U.S. industrial production was flat in January, but the increase in December was much larger than first reported, according to the Federal Reserve.
Last month, industrial production was unchanged, as a 0.7% increase among manufacturers was offset by sharp declines in mining and utilities, data from the U.S. central bank showed Wednesday.
Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes climbed in February for the fifth straight month to reach the highest level in more than four years, according to a survey released Wednesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 in February from 25 in January, meaning the gauge has more than doubled since September.
News that only a few of the Federal Open Market Committee favored another round of quantitative easing, or QE3, according to minutes of the last meeting released Wednesday. Others on the Fed's interest rate setting body indicated that QE3 could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below the 2% target for a long time, the minutes show.
Greece will continue to outway economic data until the matter is settled.
Wednesday Economic Data actual v. forecast
New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)
South Korean Trade Balance
Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY)
French GDP (QoQ)
German GDP (QoQ)
Spanish CPI (YoY)
Swedish GDP (QoQ)
Hungarian GDP (YoY)
Czech GDP (QoQ)
Austrian GDP (YoY)
Netherlands GDP (YoY)
Italian GDP (QoQ)
Average Earnings Index +Bonus
Claimant Count Change
BoE Inflation Report
BoE Gov King Speaks
MBA Mortgage Applications
Polish CPI (YoY)
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3