Economic Events: (GMT)

09:30     GBP      Retail Sales (MoM)                                        -0.2%                     0.6%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity

13:30     USD      Core CPI (MoM)                                               0.3%                      0.1%                     

13:30     USD       CPI (MoM)                                                         0.3%                      0.0%

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3109, after falling below the 1.30 line to hit a low of 1.2974 the euro has pushed back up to make up lost ground. Earlier in the day investors were in sell mode, worried about Greece, as they have for months on end. As doomsday nears and rumors fly, the EU and ECB are again inventing new ways to save Greece from a default, this time there are rumors that the ECB will swap the bonds they own for new Greek bonds on Monday, in a complicated, non transparent, non accepted transaction. Again, the bankers and politicians are trying to buy time, in the hopes that all this will just go away.

In the US today, data reported that the number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

 

GBP

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

47

 

40

 

38

 
 

 

AUD

 

Employment Change 

46.3K

 

10.9K

 

-35.6K

 
 

 

AUD

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3%

 

5.2%

 
 

 

SEK

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

2.3%

 
 

 

SEK

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.50%

 

1.50%

 

1.75%

 
 

 

EUR

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

USD

 

Building Permits 

0.68M

 

0.68M

 

0.67M

 
 

 

USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.1%

 

0.3%

 
 

 

CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

7.38B

 

7.98B

 

14.64B

 
 

 

USD

 

Housing Starts 

0.70M

 

0.68M

 

0.69M

 
 

 

CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

0.60%

 

0.50%

 

1.90%

 
 

 

USD

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 
 

 

USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K

 

361K

 
 

 

USD

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3426K

 

3550K

 

3526K

 
 

 

USD

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

MXN

 

Mexican GDP (YoY) 

3.7%

 

3.9%

 

4.5%

 
 

 

USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

10.2

 

8.4

 

7.3

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.2873
1.2924
1.3025
1.3076
1.3177
1.3228
1.3329

Fibonacci
1.2924
1.2982
1.3018
1.3076
1.3134
1.3170
1.3228

Camarilla
1.3085
1.3099
1.3113
1.3076
1.3140
1.3154
1.3168

Woodie's
-
1.2937
1.3051
1.3089
1.3202
1.3241
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3203
1.3089
1.3051
-
-