Economic Events: (GMT)

US markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continues its climb back up today, after falling below 1.30 in yesterdays mid day trading, the euro has been steadily rising. Ending the day at 1.3158 up .0029

The increased risk appetite is returning to the markets, after the ECB announced a bond swap with Greece and Merkel and Monti noted that there could be a deal as soon as Monday, but we have all heard this before.

Euro-zone construction output edged up for the second month running in December, but that wasn't enough to stop a contraction in the fourth quarter overall. The European Union's statistics agency said overall construction output in the 17 countries that use the euro rose.

Banks' emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank fell further Thursday, illustrating the reduced market tensions since the ECB flooded the banking system with liquidity via its first three-year loan operation

Swedish economic growth in 2012 will probably be much lower than the government's 1.3% forecast last autumn, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told reporters Friday. The Riksbank and the commercial banks expect growth of around half a percent

The US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, driven by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government's consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, just under the 0.3% expected by analysts. The core rate that excludes volatile food and energy prices held at 0.2%, in line with expectations

Americans' cost of living rises 0.2% in January, driven higher by the first increase in energy prices in four months, according to Labor Department data.

On this pair it is probably best to see what the weekend brings. Tensions are still high in the eurozone between Greece, Athens and Brussels.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

 
 
 

7.61B

 
 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 
 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

 
 

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 
 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 
 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 
 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 
 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 
 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 
 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.3013
1.3059
1.3105
1.3151
1.3197
1.3243
1.3289

Fibonacci
1.3059
1.3094
1.3116
1.3151
1.3186
1.3208
1.3243

Camarilla
1.3125
1.3133
1.3142
1.3151
1.3158
1.3167
1.3175

Woodie's
-
1.3059
1.3104
1.3151
1.3196
1.3243
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3220
1.3163
1.3128
-
-