Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday February 21, 2012 Economic Events.

Today are is a very light day, with only minor reports due that should not have any market effects.

07:00     CHF        Trade Balance                                   2.50B                     2.07B                    

09:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing        -9.1B                      10.8B                    

10:30     EUR        Spanish Trade Balance                 -3.10B                   -2.70B                  

 13:30    USD      Chicago Fed National Activity          0.22                        0.17                       

15:00     EUR       Consumer Confidence                    -20                          -21                         

18:00     USD      2-Year Note Auction                        0.250%                

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continues to remain strong on the hopes of a final agreement on Greece today along with annoucments from China on reducing bank reserves, which is the same as flooding the banks with billions of dollars, increasing liquidity and growth. The pair is trading at 1.3245

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2012, Forecast

The markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday

Brussels: The Eurozone Ministers continue in meetings with no decision at this time.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU-FDP government coalition on Sunday agreed with the center-left opposition parties to jointly nominate former East German human rights activist Joachim Gauck to become the country's next president. Gauck is not a member of a political party. The role of the German president is mainly ceremonial.

Greek bailout will likely get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments 

China's VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF,  ESM and other channels adding China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.

In Italy Dec industrial orders rose 5.5% in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms as a result of increased domestic and foreign orders. It was the steepest gain since march 2011, ISTAT said. On the year, unadjusted industrial orders fell 4.3%, down from -0.7% y/y in November. -Dec seas. adjusted m/m domestic orders +5.8%; foreign orders +5.1% m/m .

Italian Industrial orders for Dec +5.5%m/m from +0.2% in Nov. Unadjusted -4.3% y/y Dec sales sa +3.4%m/m from +0.1$  in Nov Workday adjusted +5.6% y/y Improvement, with increases in domestic and foreign orders with the largest gain since March 2011.

Italian PM Monti say that his government is sticking to 2013 balanced budget target

In France February manufacturing sentiment 92 vs January 92 (91)also France manufacturing morale came in at forecast in MNI

UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.

Monday February 20, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

US markets closed today for holiday

 

 

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

GBP

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

4.1%

 
 
 

-0.8%

 
 

THB

Thai GDP (YoY)

-9.0%

 

-4.3%

 

3.7%

 
 

EUR

French Business Survey

92

 

92

 

92

 
 

EUR

Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM)

5.5%

 

-0.5%

 

0.2%

 
 

RUB

Russian Retail Sales (YoY)

6.8%

 

10.2%

 

9.5%

 
 

RUB

Russian Unemployment Rate

6.6%

 

6.3%

 

6.1%

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.3070
1.3126
1.3165
1.3221
1.3260
1.3316
1.3355

Fibonacci
1.3126
1.3162
1.3185
1.3221
1.3257
1.3280
1.3316

Camarilla
1.3178
1.3187
1.3195
1.3221
1.3213
1.3221
1.3230

Woodie's
-
1.3122
1.3156
1.3217
1.3252
1.3312
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3240
1.3211
1.3146
-
-