EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 24, 2012, Forecast

By Roger Baettig | February 23 2012 4:31 PM

Economic Events: (GMT) 07:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) -0.2% -0.2%

Sponsorship Link

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.

09:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) -0.4% 0.3%

Business Investment measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of capital expenditure made by companies in the private sector.

09:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) -0.2% -0.2%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.

14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 72.5 72.5

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

15:00 USD New Home Sales 315K 307K

New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.

15:00 CAD BoC Gov Carney Speaks

Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Mark Carney (February 2008 - February 2015) is to speak. As head of the BOC's Governing Council, which controls key short term interest rates, Carney has more influence over the Canadian dollar's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 24, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is up again trading at 1.3331 after trying all day to break through the resistance at the 1.33 level. The U.S. dollar mostly weakened Thursday, while the euro got a boost from a stronger-than-expected jump registered in a closely followed gauge of German business confidence.

The euro broke through resistance at the $1.33 level to trade above $1.3340, hitting its highest level against the dollar since mid-December but eventually fell back to the 1.32 level and then climbing later in the day.

The relative strength of Germany goes some way to explain the apparent resilience of the euro to the euro-zone crisis through most of last year and so far in 2012. The EU is hoping Germany can lead it out of the economic downtrend.

US unemployment data today showed the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000. Existing home sales increased 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million in January. But the gain came only because the National Association of Realtors sharply lowered December sales to 4.38 million. If December sales had stayed at their original 4.61 million, January sales would have been down slightly.

The European Commission sharply reduced its forecasts for growth in the EU and the Eurozone for 2012 while also raising its forecasts for inflation, suggesting that the European economy could struggle with stagflation in 2012 The Commission said the economy in the 27-member EU will not grow at all this year. Raises 2012 CPI forecast to +2.1% from +1.7% EUR/USD dipped 10 pips on the release but is holding firm around 1.3320

In the UK Jan Mortgage Approvals Highest Since Dec 2009 says British Bankers Assn. January mortgage approvals rose to their highest level since December 2009, with re-mortgaging continuing to decline, according to latest British Bankers' Association data. The data add to a raft of evidence of a pick-up in housing market activity. Jan approvals for homes 38,092, vs. 36,553 in Dec

Germany cuts 2012 machine output growth forecast to 0% (+4%) - real machine output 2011 +12% vs. forecast of +14% - Germany machine output for 2011 & 2010 combined +22% - Germany preliminary December machine output -1.9% y/,y. Also Germany's Business morale up more than expected.

Italian consumer confidence rose to 94.2 from 91.8 in Jan when it had posted a 16-year low. The improvement was the result of better sentiment in the general economic climate and future outlook, partly offset by consumers' worsening sentiment in other components of the index, including personal and current climate. -Consumers' sentiment

February 23, 2012 Economic Data forecast v. actual

HKD

Hong Kong Trade Balance

-8.9B

-25.0B

-48.9B

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index

109.6

108.8

108.3

EUR