Economic Events: (GMT)

07:00     EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate                                                6.1                          5.9           

The Gfk German Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.           

08:15     CHF        Employment Level                                                                          4.03M                   4.02M    

The Employment Level measures the number of people employed during the previous quarter. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.            

 Tent      CHF       SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman (May 2007 - January 2012) Thomas Jordan is to speak. In January 2010 his title changed from Board Member to Vice Chairman. As a member of the SNB's Governing Board, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Swiss franc. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.                                                     

 11:00    GBP      CBI Distributive Trades Survey                                                 -14                          -22           

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey covering 20,000 firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease.   

 Tent      EUR       German CPI (MoM)                                                                      0.5%                      -0.4%    

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

13:30     USD      Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                        0.0%                      2.2%

13:30           USD      Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                            -0.8%                     3.0%

Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

 15:00    USD      CB Consumer Confidence                                                           63.0                        61.1

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 28, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is down trading at 1.3403 off the high today of 1.3480. The euro saw initial gains on Monday fade by the afternoon in East Asia, failing to get a sustained lift from the Group of 20 major economies supporting an enlarged euro-zone aid package.

The dollar rose on most major rivals as the euro fell prey to apparent profit-taking in quiet trading Monday, after the Group of 20 nations refused to boost funding for the International Monetary Fund until the euro zone boosts the size of its own firewall.

 Investors showed disappointment over the Group of 20 nations' meeting, rising oil prices and trepidation ahead of the European Central Bank's upcoming liquidity boost weighed on sentiment.

In the US Pending home sales climbed 2% in January to the highest level since April 2010, when buyers were taking advantage of a now-expired tax credit. The pending-home-sales index rose to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 95.1 reading in December, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday

The European Central Bank is preparing to launch the second round of its program to support the euro-zone banking system with the offer of unlimited three-year funds.

Private sector loans in the Eurozone rose much as expected in January, while M3 broad money  supply surprised to the upside, increasing at its fastest annual pace since October, the European Central Bank reported on Monday. Rising 1.1% on the year, loan growth recovered modestly after a tough December. Elsewhere in the eurozone the January M3 annual growth was reported at 2.5% well above forecast.

ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen estimated on the sidelines of the G20 summit  this weekend that the first three-year LTRO, which injected close to half a trillion euro into the banking system, had had a positive effect.

The German government expects broad majority backing for the second aid package at today's  vote in parliament, given that the main opposition parties, the center-left SPD and the ecologist Greens, have signaled their support.

In Italy, the February business confidence fell to 91.5 from 92.1 in January, as a result of worsening current orders and a decline in expected export orders. The index maintained a two-year low, ISTAT said. Also on Monday sold 8.75 billion euro ($11.7 billion) of six-month treasury bills at an average yield of 1.202%, the nation's Treasury said Monday, down from near 1.97% in a January auction. Bids exceeded supply 1.36 times

Today's economic releases actual v. forecast

EUR

 
 
 

French PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

M3 Money Supply (YoY) 

2.5%

 

1.8%

 

1.5%

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Private Loans (YoY) 

1.1%

 

1.2%

 

1.0%

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Business Confidence 

91.5

 

92.0

 

92.1

 
 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.3239
1.3303
1.3353
1.3417
1.3467
1.3531
1.3581

Fibonacci
1.3303
1.3346
1.3373
1.3417
1.3460
1.3487
1.3531

Camarilla
1.3373
1.3383
1.3394
1.3417
1.3414
1.3425
1.3435

Woodie's
-
1.3299
1.3347
1.3414
1.3461
1.3527
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3442
1.3404
1.3328
-
-