Category:

Fundamental Reports

Economic Events: (GMT)

07:45     EUR        French Consumer Spending (MoM)                        0.3%                      -0.7%

French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity.          

08:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicators                                              -0.11                      -0.17

The KOF Leading Indicators Index is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months. The index is a composite reading of 12 economic indicators related to banking confidence, production, new orders, consumer confidence and housing.                            

 08:55    EUR       German Unemployment Rate                                   6.7%                      6.7%                     

08:55     EUR       German Unemployment Change                              -5K                         -34K

The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month. German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.             

 10:00    EUR        CPI (YoY)                                                                         2.7%                      2.7%                     

 10:00    EUR       Core CPI (YoY)                                                               1.8%                      1.6%     

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The data has a relatively mild impact because overall CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target.            

13:30     USD       GDP Price Index (QoQ)                                                0.4%                      0.4%

13:30     USD       GDP (QoQ)                                                                       2.8%                      2.8%

The GDP Price Index measures the annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in gross domestic product. It are the broadest inflationary indicator.           

14:30     USD       FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.                                                                                                         

14:45     USD       Chicago PMI                                                                    61.8                        60.2

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.                    

 15:00    USD      Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

19:00     USD      Beige Book

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book is a report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal districts in the U.S. It gives a picture of economic trends and challenges in the U.S. It is released 8 times a year, 2 weeks before each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is used by the FOMC in their decision on short-term interest rates.           

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 29, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is up at the close of the European session trading at 1.3456 after opening at 1.3398. The pair seesawed all day, first dropping on a lackluster German Confidence data, the Gfk German Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity came in slightly under forecast today. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions. Markets were forecasting a 6.1 confidence level when data released showed a 6.0 level. Adding apprehension is the upcoming announcement from the ECB of the results of its second, and potentially the last, three-year LTRO on Wednesday. The first such operation in December saw more than 500 banks tap the ECB for €489 billion in three-year loans at a rate fixed to the bank's refi rate, which stands at 1%.

In the U.S. home prices fell 1.1% in December to bring the year-over-year fall to 4%, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. Also today in the data showing orders for durable goods sank 4% in January, the U.S. Commerce Department said.

A surprise came from Ireland, where the government has decided to put the ratification of the new EU fiscal treaty to a vote.

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Economic Data February 28, 2012 actual v forecast

 

CHF

 

 

 

Consumption Indicator 

0.92

 
 
 

0.94

 
 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

6.0

 

6.1

 

5.9

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Employment Level 

4.04M

 

4.03M

 

4.05M

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Business and Consumer Survey 

94.4

 

93.8

 

93.4

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

4.190%

 
 
 

6.470%

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

-2

 

-14

 

-22

 

 

 

CLP

 

 

 

Chilean Unemployment Rate 

6.6%

 

7.0%

 

6.6%

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

 

Hungarian Interest Rate Decision 

7.00%

 

7.00%

 

7.00%

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-3.2%

 

0.0%

 

2.1%

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-4.0%

 

-0.8%

 

3.2%

 
 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.5%

 

-0.4%

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

S&P/CS Home Price Indices Composite - 20 (YoY) 

-4.0%

 

-3.6%

 

-3.9%

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

 

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.3376
1.3383
1.3393
1.3400
1.3410
1.3417
1.3427

Fibonacci
1.3383
1.3389
1.3393
1.3400
1.3406
1.3410
1.3417

Camarilla
1.3399
1.3401
1.3402
1.3400
1.3406
1.3407
1.3409

Woodie's
-
1.3384
1.3396
1.3401
1.3413
1.3418
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3414
1.3401
1.3396
-
-