Economic Events: (GMT)

00:01     GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence                                         -32                          -33

Gfk Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A reading above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:00     CHF       Consumption Indicator                                                0.81

The UBS Consumption Indicator is a leading indicator of private consumption trends. This indicator is a combined reading of five indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF. Due to the current situation of the Swissie this report will be important this week.                         

 07:00    EUR        German Retail Sales (MoM)                                      0.8%                      -1.0%

German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                            

 07:45    EUR       French Consumer Spending (MoM)                       0.3%                      -0.1%                    

07:45     EUR       French PPI (MoM)                                                        0.1%                      0.4%

French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:55     EUR       German Unemployment Rate                                 6.8%                      6.8%                     

 08:55    EUR       German Unemployment Change                             -7K                        -22K

The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month. 

German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.                              

 09:00    EUR       Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate                    8.7%                     8.6%

The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market.                

09:00     EUR       Italian PPI (MoM)                                                       0.0%                      0.1%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                            

 Tenta   EUR        Spanish Business Confidence                                   -21                          -20

Business Confidence rates the current level of business conditions. It helps to analyze the economic situation in the short term. A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

                               

 09:30    GBP       M4 Money Supply (MoM)                                          0.3%                      -0.6%                    

 09:30    GBP      Mortgage Approvals                                                     53K                         53K                        

 09:30    GBP      Net Lending to Individuals                                         1.2B                       1.0B

M4 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.

Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month by the Bank of England. The data tends to have a limited impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier.

Net lending to individuals measures the change in the total value of new credit extended to consumers. It is closely correlated with consumer spending and confidence.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

 10:00    EUR       Unemployment Rate                                                     10.4%                    10.3%     

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.               

 

13:30     USD      Employment Cost Index (QoQ)                                                0.4%                      0.3%

The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                          

 14:45    USD       Chicago PMI                                                                       63.0                        62.5                       

 15:00    USD       CB Consumer Confidence                                              68.2                        64.5

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.           

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.3118, down from $1.3216 in late North American dealings on Friday. And continues to fall.

The dollar strengthened during European trading hours Monday, as investors shifted into the U.S. currency amid jitters over Greece and as a European Union summit was getting underway.

Germany's finance minister issued an unusually blunt warning that the euro zone might refuse to grant Greece a fresh bailout, pushing Athens into default unless it persuades Europe it can overhaul its state and economy.

Greece needs to decide, Wolfgang Schäuble said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, when asked whether the euro zone would grant or withhold the second bailout package for the country since 2010, expected to be in excess of €130 billion ($172 billion).

Europe is prepared to support Greece with the new loan package, Mr. Schäuble said, but he warned: Unless Greece implements the necessary decisions and doesn't just announce them...there's no amount of money that can solve the problem.

The remarks came as German officials last week floated the radical idea of appointing a European budget commissioner with veto powers over Greece's spending, partially suspending Greece's national sovereignty over its budget, in return for aid.

Stubbornly high budget deficits mean that Greece is struggling to restore its solvency, despite an expected deal with bondholders that could reduce its private-sector debt by up to €100 billion. Many economists say euro-zone governments and the European Central Bank will also eventually have to forgive some of what Greece owes them.

As the EU Summit begins on Monday afternoon, no Greece deal is on the table, the parties involved are all in Athens and not in Brussels to present a final deal. The markets are very worried. In the meantime the IMF is reassessing Greece's needs to determine how much money they will need, expectations are that they will require at least an additional 10billion euros over the agreed upon 130billion.

Markets are very worried.

Also on Tuesday a huge amount of economic data will be released.

The dollar is gaining on the euro today and is expected to maintain strength throughout the earlier part of the week.

Upcoming Govt Bond Sales Dates

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Jan 31  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Jan 31  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 07

Feb 01  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 01  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 01  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill

Feb 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt

Feb 01  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08

Feb 01  16:00  US

Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb

08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09

Feb 02  09:50  France  OAT Auction

Feb 02  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.125% 2029

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.2923
1.3000
1.3070
1.3147
1.3217
1.3294
1.3364

Fibonacci
1.3000
1.3056
1.3091
1.3147
1.3203
1.3238
1.3294

Camarilla
1.3101
1.3114
1.3128
1.3147
1.3154
1.3168
1.3181

Woodie's
-
1.2998
1.3068
1.3145
1.3214
1.3292
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3182
1.3129
1.3035
-
-