Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD has moved up in end of the day trading to reach 1.3104 after opening at 1.3032. There has been no economic news to support the euro move and no weakness exhibited by the greenback.

In Europe today, The ECB said isn't currently considering or discussing future cuts to its interest rates, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said Thursday in an interview.

Earlier in the day an economic report release showed real wages fell again in the 17 countries that use the euro in the fourth quarter of last year, while employment also declined; confirming consumption and confidence are likely to remain weak as the region teeters on the brink of a return to recession.

These two items should have given the euro some weakness but not today.

In the US the economic news was positive as volumes of releases and data flowed today.

The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 last week to 351,000, matching a four-year low, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 365,000 from 362,000.

The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 20.2 in March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. This is the fourth straight increase after the index had sunk below zero from June through October.

U.S. wholesale prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in February, the fastest increase in five months, sparked by higher petroleum costs, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Foreign investors were buyers in January of a net $94.7 billion of long-term U.S. securities, Treasury Department data released Thursday showed. This is much stronger than the revised $19.4 billion of net sales in December. 

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region edged higher in March to its highest reading since last April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported Thursday. The bank's business condition index rose to 12.5 in March from 10.2 in February

A RealtyTrac report showed that foreclosure activity fell 8% nationally, compared with a year ago.

The markets were hit by a rumor this afternoon, when reports came out saying the President Obama and UK Prime Minster Cameron reached agreement to release strategic fuel reserves, which was not true, they did have a meeting to discuss the issue but no decisions were made nor any plans. The rumor was later retracted but not until after crude had plummeted over 1.00. This might also be the cause in the inequity of the euro/usdollar.

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Released Economic Reports for March 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Mar. 15

09:30

 

CHF

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 
 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 
 
 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

11:00

 

EUR

 
 
 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

356K 

 

365K 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

20.2

 

17.4 

 

19.5 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3343K

 

3405K 

 

3424K 

 
 

 

14:00

 

USD

 
 
 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

101.0B

 

29.3B 

 

19.1B 

 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

12.5

 

11.4 

 

10.2 

 
 

Economic Events for March 16, 2012

Time      Currency        Event                                                          Forecast               Previous

13:30     CAD      Foreign Securities Purchases                     6.27B                     7.38B      

Foreign Securities Purchases measures the overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors.     

 13:30    CAD      Manufacturing Sales (MoM)                         0.60%                   0.60%

Manufacturing Sales measures the change in the overall value of sales made at the manufacturing level.             

13:30     USD      Core CPI (MoM)                                            0.2%                      0.2%                     

13:30     USD      CPI (MoM)                                                     0.4%                      0.2%     

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:15     USD       Industrial Production (MoM)                       0.4%                      0.0%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

14:55     USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index        75.7                       75.3

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

Government Bond Auction Schedule     (this week)

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.2902
1.2953
1.3017
1.3068
1.3132
1.3183
1.3247

Fibonacci
1.2953
1.2997
1.3024
1.3068
1.3112
1.3139
1.3183

Camarilla
1.3050
1.3061
1.3071
1.3068
1.3093
1.3103
1.3114

Woodie's
-
1.2956
1.3025
1.3071
1.3139
1.3186
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.3157
1.3080
1.3042
-
-