EUR/USD Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EST + 0500)

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The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4845 level and was capped around the $1.5060 level.  The common currency established a fresh multi-month high before eroding and moving away from the psychologically-important US$ 1.5000 figure.  The common currency failed to sustain gains it scored after a People's Bank of China research report was released that favoured more euro purchases by the central bank.  Technically, today's intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.4480 to $1.5060.  The common currency was also propelled lower on a growing view the U.S. dollar's sell-off may have been overdone recently.  Also adding to the dollar's gains were reports in the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times that the Fed is considering ways to remove liquidity from the system, possibly through reverse repos.  European Central Bank member Liikanen reported the U.S.'s commitment to its strong dollar policy is justified and said strong exchange rate fluctuation are undesirable as they increase economic uncertainty.  French finance minister Lagarde warned France's labour market is set to wosen over the next several quarters.  The September unemployment rate climbed 0.8% with 2.575 million now officially unemployed.  German Chancellor Merkel indicated the formulation of monetary policy will be incredibly difficult for her new government and pessimistically warned the crisis will extend into 2011.  Data released in Germany today saw the Novembe GfK consumer confidence survey decline to 4 from 4.2 in October.  European Central Bank member Noyer warned There are signs that parts of the financial industry have resumed risk taking practices reminiscent of those which led to the crisis.  In U.S. news, the Chicago Fed's Midwest Manufacturing Index improved 1.0% to 82.3 in September, the highest reading since February 2008.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level. 

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