The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4685 level and was supported around the $1.4595 level. The common currency moved higher after Abu Dhabi paid US$ 10 billion to assist Dubai in paying its debts, alleviating some concerns about sovereign debt defaults. This news added a bid to global equities including U.S. equities and was bearish for the dollar. Notably, the U.S. dollar rallied on Friday following positive economic U.S. data but shifted back to a good global news is bad news for the U.S. dollar paradigm today. The U.S. dollar, in recent months, has been a safe haven play along with the Japanese yen. Most traders do not expect any significant changes to monetary policy at the Federal Opem Market Committee meeting tomorrow and Wednesday. While interest rate policy is expected to remain unchanged, the FOMC is likely to acknowledge recent improvements in U.S. economic data and could spotlight some probable changes to some of its emergency lending programs over the next few months. Data to be released in the U.S. tomorrow include November producer price inflation data with a core increase of 0.9% y/y expected. U.S. fed funds futures are predicting at least an 88% chance the U.S. will lift interest rates in 2010, up from 78% on 24 November. There is about a 46% chance the Fed will hike by June, up from 30% on 30 November. In eurozone news, EMU-16 employment fell by 712,000 in Q3, the fifth consecutive quarter of declines. Also, EMU-16 industrial production was off 0.6% m/m and 11.1% y/y, the eighteenth consecutive year-on-year decline. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4505 level.
Join the Discussion