Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD)

The EUR/USD fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for EUR/USD. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The EUR/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

 

EUR/USD -Recent Economic Releases

 

EMU (EUR): Debt crisis issues and uncertainties remain unchanged and the growth forecast of Euro zone and Germany was cut for 2013 by European commission,
EMU (EUR):
Wholesale Price Index: Year on year change 4.6% was less than the consensus of 4.9% but better than the previous 4.2%. Month on month change -0.6% was negative as compared to the forecasts (-0.3%) as well as the previous 1.3%.
EMU (EUR): German ZEW Surveys: Economic Sentiment -15.7, negative as compared to the forecasts (-9.8) as well as the previous -11.5. Same with ZEW Current Situation data which was 5.4 against the consensus of 8.0 and previous 10.0. The ZEW Economic sentiment was -2.6 and again less than the previous -1.4.
EMU (EUR): Industrial Production: Year on year change -2.3% was same as the consensus but better than the previous -2.9%. Month on month change -2.5% was negative as compared to the forecasts (-1.9%) as well as the previous 0.9%.
EMU (EUR): German GDP (prelim): Year on year change 0.4%, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.8%) as well as the previous 0.5%. Quarter on quarter change 0.2% was same as the consensus but less than the previous 0.3%.
EMU (EUR): Consumer Price Index: Year on year change in Core CPI remained unchanged from the consensus and previous 1.5%. Year on year CPI 2.5% was same as the forecasts and slightly less than the previous 2.6%. Month on month change in the CPI was again same as the consensus i.e. 0.2% but quite less than the previous 0.7%.
EMU (EUR): GDP (prelim): Year on year change was -0.6% and though slightly better than the consensus of -0.7% but less than the previous -0.4%. The quarter on quarter change of -0.1% was better than the expected and previous -0.2%
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U.S. (USD): Monthly Budget Statement: USD -120B, negative as compared to the forecasts (US$ -114B) as well as the previous 75B U.S. Dollars.
U.S. (USD): Produce Price Index: Year on year change in PPI was 2.3% and though less than the consensus of 2.6%, it was better than the previous 2.1%. The year on year change in the PPI ex Food & Energy was 2.1% and less than the consensus of 2.5% and previous 2.3%. Month on month change was -0.2% and negative as compared to the forecasts (0.1%) as well as the previous 0.0%.
U.S. (USD): Retail Sales: Month on month change in retail sales (-0.3%) was negative as compared to the forecasts (-0.2%) as well as the previous 1.3%. The same with month on month retail sales ex autos which was 0.0% against the expected 0.2% and previous 1.2%.
U.S. (USD): Consumer Price Index: Year on year change 2.2% and positive as compared to the forecasts (2.1%) as well as the previous 2.0%. Month on month change 0.1% was same as the consensus but quite less than the previous 0.6%. Year on year change in the CPI ex Food & Energy was 2% and same as the consensus as well as the previous release.
U.S. (USD): Jobless Claims: Initial claims were 439K and hence quite negative as compared to the forecasts (375K) as well as the previous 361K. Same with the continuing claims which were 3.334M against the expected 3.210M and previous 3.163M.
U.S. (USD): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: -10.7 and quite negative as compared to the forecasts (2.0) as well as the previous 5.7.
U.S. (USD): Net Long-Term TIC Flows: USD 3.3B and quite negative as compared to the forecasts (USD 75.0B) as well as the previous 90.3B U.S. Dollars.
U.S. (USD): Capacity Utilization: 77.8%, negative as compared to the forecasts (78.3%) as well as the previous 78.2%.

EUR/USD Outlook : Economic Releases (Strength Meter)

 


Immediate EUR/USD Outlook based of recent economic releasesEUR/USD outlook




 
EUR/USD Interest Rate Comparision
(For Carry Trade)
Euro 
0.75%
US Dollar  
0.25%
Euro-Dollar interest rate comparision 


 
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