Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD)

The EUR/USD fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for EUR/USD. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The EUR/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

EUR/USD -Recent Economic Releases

 

EMU (EUR): German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey: 5.9, negative as compared to the forecasts (6.2) as well as the previous 6.1.
EMU (EUR): German Consumer Price Index (prelim): Year on year change 1.9% was same as the consensus and slightly less than the previous 2.0%. Same with the month on month change in CPI as well as harmonized CPI of -0.1% against the previous 0.0%. The year on year harmonized CPI was 2.0%, slightly better than the consensus of 1.9% and slightly less than the previous 2.1%.
EMU (EUR): German Unemployment Change: 5K, positive as compared to the forecasts (15K) as well as the previous 19K. The unemployment rate remained same at 6.9%.
EMU (EUR): Business Climate: 1.19, positive as compared to the forecasts (-1.60) as well as the previous -1.61.
EMU (EUR): Consumer Confidence: -26.9, same as the consensus and less than the previous -25.7.
EMU (EUR): Economic and Industrial Confidence: Economic Sentiment indicator: 85.7, positive as compared to the forecasts (84.2) as well as the previous 84.3. Industrial confidence -15.1 was also better than the consensus of -18.0 and previous -18.3.
EMU (EUR): German Retail Sales: Year on year change -0.8% was less than the expected 1.2% but quite better than the previous -3.4%. The month on month change -2.8% was quite negative as compared to the forecasts (-0.2%) as well as the previous 0.5%.
EMU (EUR): Consumer Price Index - YoY (prelim):  2.2%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.4%) as well as the previous 2.5%.
EMU (EUR): Unemployment Rate: 11.7%, though same as the consensus but higher than the previous 11.6%
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U.S. (USD): Durable Goods Orders: Change of 0.0% was better than the consensus of -0.6% but quite less than the previous 9.2%. Durable Goods ex transportation changed by 1.5% and though better than the expected change of -0.6% but less than the previous 1.7%.
U.S. (USD): Consumer Confidence: 73.7, positive as compared to the forecasts (73.0) as well as the previous 72.2.
U.S. (USD): Housing Price Index (MoM): 0.2%, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.4%) as well as the previous 0.7%.
U.S. (USD): Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 9, quite positive as compared to the forecasts (-2) as well as the previous (-7).
U.S. (USD): New home Sales (MoM): -0.3%, better than the consensus of -0.8% but quite less than the previous 0.8%.
U.S. (USD): Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ): 1.1% against the previous 1.8%.
U.S. (USD): Gross Domestic Product: Annualized GDP for Q3 2.7% and though slightly less than the forecasts of 2.8% but quite better than the previous 2.0%. Gross Domestic Purchase price Index change of 1.4% was quite less than the expected 2.8% as well as the previous 1.5%.
U.S. (USD): Pending Home Sales: Month on month change 5.2%, quite positive as compared to the forecasts (0.8%) as well as the previous 0.4%. Year on year change 13.2% was less than the previous 14.5%.
U.S. (USD): Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index: Year on year Core PCE Price Index was 1.6% and same as the previous though slightly less than the expected 1.7%. The month on month change of 0.0% was negative as compared to the forecasts (0.2%) as well as the previous 0.4%. The year on year change in PCE (non core) was 1.7% and though little less than the consensus of 1.7% but was higher than the previous 1.6%.
U.S. (USD): Income and Expenditure: The month on month change in personal income was 0.0% and negative as compared to the forecasts (0.2%) as well as the previous 0.4%. Personal spending also came out negative at -0.2% against the consensus of 0.2% and previous 0.8%.
U.S. (USD): Chicago PMI: At 50.4 though it was slightly less than the expected 50.5 but was better than the previous 49.9
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EUR/USD Outlook : Economic Releases (Strength Meter)

  
 EUR/USD fundamental analysis - Economic strength outlook - December 1, 2012
Immediate EUR/USD Outlook based of recent economic releasesEUR/USD outlook

 

EUR/USD Interest Rate Comparision
(For Carry Trade)
Euro 
0.75%
US Dollar  
0.25%
Euro-Dollar interest rate comparision 
0.50%

 

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