Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD)

The EUR/USD fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for EUR/USD. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The EUR/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

EUR/USD -Recent Economic Releases

EMU (EUR): Labor Cost in Q3: 2.0% against Q2's 1.9%.
EMU (EUR): German IFO surveys: Business Climate 102.4 and positive as compared to the forecasts (102.0) as well as the previous 101.4. Current Assessment at 107.1 was less than the consensus of 108.0 and previous 108.1. IFO Expectation data was 97.9 and better as compared to the expectation (96.3) as well as the previous 95.2.
EMU (EUR): German Producer Price Index: Year on year change 1.4% was same as the consensus and slightly less than the previous 1.5%. The month on month change was -0.1% and though better than the expected -0.2% but was less than the previous 0.0%.
EMU (EUR): Consumer Confidence (prelim): -26.60, positive as compared to the forecasts (-26.85) as well as the previous -26.90.
EMU (EUR):  European Systemic Risk Board Meeting: The summary shows a downside growth for risks but improvements in market sentiments and also in the indicators of systemic risk. Report can be seen at http://www.esrb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
EMU (EUR): German Gfk Consumer Confidence: 5.6, negative as compared to the forecasts (5.9) as well as the previous 5.8.


U.S. (USD): NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for December: -8.10, negative as compared to the forecasts(-1.0) as well as the previous -5.22.
U.S. (USD): Net Long-Term TIC Flows: USD 1.3B, negative as compared to the forecasts (USD 24.3B) as well as the previous 3.2B U.S. Dollars.
U.S. (USD): Housing: Housing Starts was 0.861M and less than the consensus of 0.873M and previous month's 0.888M. On the other hand the new building permits were 0.899M and hence more than the expected 0.875M and previous 0.868M.
U.S. (USD): Existing Home Sales: The month on month change was 5.9% and quite positive as compared to the forecasts (1.3%) as well as the previous 1.5%.
U.S. (USD): GDP: Gross Domestic Purchase Price Index for Q3 was 1.6% against the previous 1.4%. The Annualized GDP in Q3 was 3.1% and positive as compared to the forecasts(2.8%)  as well as the previous 2.7%.
U.S. (USD): Jobless Claims: Initial claims were 361K and hence negative as compared to the forecasts (357K) as well as the previous 344K. Same was the case with continuing jobless claims which were 3.225M against the previous 3.213M and expected 3.199M.
U.S. (USD): Personal Consumption Expenditure: The quarter on quarter PCE Prices in Q3 remained same as the previous and expected 1.6%. Same was the case with the core PCE which remained as 1.1%.
U.S. (USD): CB Leading Indicator (MoM): -0.2% and though same as the forecasts but quite less than the previous 0.3%.
U.S. (USD): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 8.1, quite positive as compared to the forecasts (-3.0) as well as the previous -10.7.
U.S. (USD): Durable Goods Orders (November): 0.7% and though better than the consensus of 0.2% but less than the previous 1.1%. Same with the Durable Goods Orders ex-Transportation which were 1.6% against the consensus of -0.2% and previous 1.9%.
U.S. (USD): Income and Expenditure: The November data for Personal Income (MoM) showed a change of 0.6% which was better than the consensus of 0.3% and previous 0.1%. The year on year core personal consumption expenditure price index was 1.5% against the previous 1.6%. Personal spending data came out same as the consensus of 0.4% and quite better than the previous -0.1%.
U.S. (USD): Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 72.9, negative as compared to the forecasts (74.7) as well as the previous 74.5.

EUR/USD Outlook : Economic Releases (Strength Meter)

 
EUR/USD fundamental analysis - Economic strength outlook - December 22, 2012
Immediate EUR/USD Outlook based of recent economic releasesEUR/USD outlook
 

 

EUR/USD Interest Rate Comparision
(For Carry Trade)
Euro 
0.75%
US Dollar  
0.25%
Euro-Dollar interest rate comparision 
0.50%
 

 

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