With a gap lower confirming its follow through on its past week losses in early trading today, EUR is now set to weaken further towards its 200 ema located at the 1.4075 level.Slightly below that level stands the 1.4053 level, its Aug 05'2011 low where a violation will push the pair further lower towards the 1.3837 level, its July 12'2011 low and subsequently its Mar 06'2011 low at 1.3751. Its weekly and daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, the risk to the pair's present downside outlook will be a return above the 1.4496 level, marking its Aug 26'2011 high. Above here if seen will create scope for a move towards the 1.4550 level where a break will aim at the 1.4696 level, its Jun 07'2011 high and next the 1.4938 level, its 2011. All in all, having turned back below its broken falling trendline and wiped out its two-week gains, risk remains lower towards the 1.4075/53 levels.

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