The pair may have triggered a recovery higher but still retains its bear threats started from the 1.4534 level. To prevent a return below the 1.4143 level, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.4534/76 levels. This will pave the way for a run at the 1.4696 level, its Jun 07'2011 high. Further out, the 1.4938 level, its 2011 high comes in as the next upside target. On the other hand, below the 1.4143 level will set the stage for further weakness towards the 1.4014 level, its July 18'2011 low. Further risk to our analysis will be a continued decline and a return to the 1.3837 level where a firm break will resume its short term weakness towards its Mar 06'2011 low at 1.3751. Further support lies at the 1.3700 level, its psycho level.

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