ftu_060310_eurusd4h

  • 4H: The EUR/USD may retest 1.2150/1.21 today. The 4H chart shows reversal candlestick combination at the 61.8% retracement level of 1.2120. The inability of price level to reach above 1.2350 while RSI makes a new high is a negative reversal. This suggests a swing towards 1.2150.
  • This resistance is additionally suggested by the SMA 50.

ftu_060310_eurusd1h

  • 1H: The 1H chart shows some support at the 61.8% retracement of the latest upswing. This is a confluence of the fibo level, the rising support, and the SMA 50. A minor bullish attempt and then a strong bearish attempt should confirm our short-term outlook towards 1.2150 and maybe 1.21.
  • Note that the lows in the past few weeks have not been met with bottoming but instead sharp reversals. That should cause a trader to have very nimble exits or position resizing as the market nears the 1.2150 low.
  • A parabolic SAR is a trailing stop that is ideal for sharp exits and may be appropriate in this case.

  Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor