Current EUR/USD Price: 1.4215

Weekly Movement:       May 13th=>1.4117, May 20th => 1.4215 Difference + 98 pips .69%

Monthly Movement:     May 1st => 1.4802, May 20th => 1.4215 Difference - 587 pips -3.97%

After losing 685 pips, 4.63%, in the first 2 weeks of May, it's shouldn't be a surprise to anyone to have seen a relief rally in the EUR this week.  

In what should have been a quiet Friday considering there were hardly any economic numbers on the docket, turned out to be an eventful morning. These are the highlighted events that affected the EURO today:

  • President Jens Weidmann of German Bundesbank said that Greek banks will be cut off from funding; ECB no longer accept Greek debt on extension; Further rescue aid shouldn't be assumed
  • Norway freezes $42M in payments to Greece
  • Fitch cuts Greek rating deeper into junk territory and warning of even further downgrades; Warned any extension of debt maturities - soft restructuring or re-profiling - to be a default event

Next week the EURO seems vulnerable considering the events listed above but I would wait before beginning to short again.  Commodities are on the rise again.  Gold is up 20pts today and oil back above 100.  S&P seems stuck between 1337 and 1344.  But I'll be ready next week to shoot off some shorts in EUR/USD on any move back towards 1.4300-1.44.

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Source: FXCM

The chart above shows the EUR/USD movement for the month of May.  The bounce from this month low of 1.4050 occurred this week.