EUR/USD - May 2010 déjà vu: Iceland volcano eruption, Greece sovereign debt crisis...

on May 23 2011 10:57 AM

When you woke up this morning, you might have thought you were being punked by Ashton Kutcher, thinking it was May 2010 not 2011. 

A year later and we are back to the same stories in the EURO, Iceland volcano eruption, and Greece sovereign debt crisis. 

EUR/USD is down 114 pips, (.81%) for the day as of 10:14AM EST. 

Here's a rundown of the important events overnight affecting the EURO:

  • Iceland Volcano Eruption Part Two. The first Icelandic volcano eruption occurred at the end of April 2010 and lasted until mid-May. Ash cloud set to enter UK airspace by Tuesday.
  • Spain ruling Socialists are beaten by conservatives in municipal elections
  • Terrible PMI numbers in Germany and EU: German Flash Manufacturing PMI - 58.2 actual vs. 61.2 forecast vs. 62 previous, German Flash Services PMI - 54.9 actual vs. 57.1 forecast vs. 56.8
  • Spanish 10yr bond yields higher this morning, up 20pts @ 5.57% vs. 5.35
  • S&P downgrades Italy's credit rating outlook to negative
  • Fridays events, Fitch cutting Greek rating, Norway freezing $42M in payments to Greece, and German Bundesbank comments still weighing heavily
  • Interesting facts: May 2010 the EUR/USD closed the month 7.8%, so far we are down 5.2% for May 2011, 7.8% puts us at 1.3650 from beginning of the month @ 1.48134 which coincides with the daily 200 SMA... We have 7 days till end of month to see if this pattern holds true...
  • EUR/USD needs to close below daily 100SMA first, which is currently at 1.3966...
  • Short EUR/USD on any rallies from 1.4120-1.4190, target 1.37....
  • Current 200 weekly SMA @ 1.39971, strong support needs to see close below...
  • Current 100 weekly SMA @ 1.3750...

 

Souce: FXCM width=630