Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3558; (P) 1.3678; (R1) 1.3823

EUR/USD's break of 1.3528 minor support indicates that recovery from 1.3313 should have completed at 1.3796 after failing to take out 4 hours 55 EMA. As discussed before, with EUR/USD still staying well within the inner falling channel, fall from 1.4719 should still be in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.3313 first. Break will confirm this case and bring deeper fall towards 1.2329 low.

On the upside, focus remains on the mentioned trend line resistance (now at 1.3830). break of the channel resistance will suggest that fall from 1.4719 has completed at 1.3313 already. More importantly, this will leave such fall in three wave corrective manner and indicate that a break above 1.4719 should at least be seen before topping. Break of 1.4360 resistance will confirm the short term bullish case.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom no doubt in place at 1.2329 and fall from 1.6038 should have completed. Whether such fall is impulsive or corrective in nature is debatable. But after all, in either case, as long as 1.4867 resistance holds, such decline is still in favor to resume. Though, some larger scale consolidation could be seen first. However, above 1.4867 will dampen the bearish view and argue that stronger rally would be seen to retest 1.6038 record high.