EUR/USD's fall extends to a low as 1.3876 today before recovering mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.3998 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, the break of inner channel support affirms that case that choppy recovery from 1.3747 is merely a correction to fall from 1.4337 and has completed. Further decline should be seen to this low and break will confirm this case and should then target medium term channel support (now at 1.3517). On the upside, above 1.3998 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 1.4196 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, rise from 1.2456 is treated as the third leg of medium term triangle consolidation from 1.2329 (first leg completed at 1.4719, second at 1.2456). With daily MACD staying below signal line, it's likely that such rise has completed at 1.4337 already. Break of 1.3747 will add more credence to this case and firm break of channel support (now at 1.3517) will confirm and bring deeper fall to 1.2456/2884 support zone. Though, in such case, as we're favoring that it's developing into triangle consolidation, downside should be contained by 1.2456/2884 support zone and bring one more rise to complete the consolidation.
On the upside, above 1.4337 will delay the bearish case and indicate that rise from 1.2456 is still in progress. Nevertheless, as this rise is still treated as part of the medium term consolidation, it should be limited by 1.4719/4867 resistance zone. Hence, upside potential should be limited and focus will still be on reversal signal even in case of another rise.